2022 Federal Election Wrap Up - What did we learn?
As the dust continues to settle from 21 May, and with Labor securing a majority of 76 seats, what are some of the key takeaways of the 2022 Federal Election.
Takeaways for Labor…
Despite winning office, the 2022 Federal Election has been overall a poor result for Labor. Given all the former government's problems and the obsessive media campaign against Morrison it should have been a more decisive victory for Labor. This was not a landslide win to Labor.
A Labor majority will only be two or three seats – if they are lucky! (this means in 2010 we had a minority federal government; 2016 Turnbull won with one seat’; 2019 Morrison won with two seat majority; 2022 ALP with one or two seat majority.) Menzies won in 1961 with one seat.
Not a large swing: A Two-Party Preferred swing of 3.5% - this is not high compared to other elections involving a change of government e.g. 2007. The ALP also received a low primary vote - only 32%
Labor lost seats. It lost seats to the Greens like in Griffith and it lost Fowler to independent Dai Le. It’s win was also blunted in Queensland, where they did not win one seat from the Coalition. Instead, two Coalition seats have gone to the Greens - Brisbane and Ryan. The key problem for Labor will be managing the Greens who will continue draw Labor to the left, especially on climate and energy policy.
Takeaways for the Liberals…
A landslide loss: While it was not a landslide win to Labor, given the number of seats lost by the Liberal Party (15-16) it felt like a landslide loss to them. The difference was that many of their losses were to the so-called “teal” independents or Greens in previous safe Liberal seats.
Queensland remains strong: The Liberal losses were concentrated in NSW and Western Australia and to a lesser extent Victoria (although here some Liberal Party seats are now on a knife edge such as Menzies).
Takeaways for the Nationals…
Election confirms past trends on the non-Labor side that when a swing is on the Liberals suffer more than the Nationals – in the 1969 and 1972 elections which saw the rise of Whitlam the Liberals lost a total of 23 seats over the two elections – the Nationals lost just 1.
The National Party seats held firm, though there were sizeable swings against them in places such as Capricornia and elsewhere. The Nationals have continued their recent trend of the past few federal elections of not losing any seats.
Hence, they have held their 16 House of Representatives seats. Their Senate representation also remains intact and will be boosted with addition of Jacinta Price from NT.
Nevertheless, like the Liberal Party, the National Party’s problems will emerge post the election in terms of leadership, policy direction, party membership and management.
The Minors - One Nation, UAP and the Liberal Democrats…
Simply put, they performed poorly. One Nation made no inroads. The UAP was a waste of time and money. And the Liberal Democrats continue to remain unknown and irrelevant.
The Greens and the Teals…
The Green/Independent challenge started in the inner city and initially affected Labor. Now it's spread further geographically and it's the Liberals’ turn. All the electorates involved seem to have a similar demographic: educated, professional, affluent and obsessed with post-materialist issues such as environment, gender and human rights.
Nevertheless, the “teal” effect does not seem to have spread (at this stage) much beyond these areas. As mentioned above, the Nationals have not lost a seat in comparison to the Liberals.
A new realignment?
Academics like Ian Marsh1 raised concerns about the continuation of the two party regime a long time ago given the changing nature of the economy and fragmentation and tribalisation of society.2
The low primary vote for Labor and the Liberals/Nationals may be a temporary phenomenon - the two-party system has proved remarkably resilient in Australia, although it does tend to fracture in times of hardship and stress like the Depression. The question is, does this really apply now?
The issue is whether this election represents a major realignment where a third force consistently polls almost as well as the so-called major parties? In 1943 the UAP (predecessor of the Liberal Party) received 22% primary vote and the Country Party 8.5%, while Labor received 50.2% and independents 12%.
The inner-city vs suburban/regional divide needs further consideration and although long recognised3 is only now being appreciated.4
Ian Marsh, Beyond the Two Party System, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995, Chapters 1 and 12.
Paul Kelly, “The real problem with this election”, The Australian, 5 May 2022.
See Nic Economou “From the inner cities to the outer suburbs: Voting, parties, politics and pos- industrial Australia”, Monash University, 2010; Matthew Lesh, Democracy in a Divided Australia, 2018
Cameron Milner, “ Forget the teals, the real contest is in the suburbs”, The Australian, 26 May 2022